The HVAC market is a rapidly changing environment on a variety of fronts, from the introduction of new refrigerants to the increasing use of artificial intelligence to the embrace of interconnected systems in the Internet of Things (IoT) environment. We asked our Expert Panel Roundtable: How will the HVAC market change in the next five years?
In the upcoming five years, the HVAC industry will undergo significant transformation, driven by several key trends:
- Smart systems and IoT: HVAC systems will become increasingly interconnected, using the Internet of Things (IoT) to communicate with other home automation systems, allowing for real-time adjustments to factors like occupancy and external temperature.
- Energy efficiency and green tech: With the push for sustainability, we expect to see more energy-efficient models and systems driven by electricity or geothermal energy.
- AI-driven predictive maintenance: Leveraging AI, HVAC systems will predict when maintenance is due, ensuring optimal performance and longer equipment life.
- Variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems: VRF systems can heat and cool different areas simultaneously, offering efficiency and versatility.
- Personalized air quality solutions: In a post-pandemic, systems that integrate air purification and monitor air quality are increasingly demanded. Investing in training on these newer technologies and prioritizing customer education will undoubtedly lead the market.
Honeywell has a more than 100-year history of developing new technologies to address emerging needs and evaluating megatrends in global markets. This includes anticipating the market demand to cut carbon emissions and greenhouse gases (GHGs) and increasing energy efficiency decades ago. As the market continues to evolve to meet legislative requirements and other changes, we too are evolving to ensure our customers have the solutions they will need readily available to them. U.S. federal, state, and EU regulators are in various stages of establishing and enforcing a 150 GWP limit for refrigerants in new systems.
Important to managing the transition away from high-GWP HFCs is finding the right solutions that can meet environmental requirements while maintaining performance. Honeywell offers a number of ready-now solutions that support this. For example, our Solstice® ze refrigerant, built upon our innovative HFO technology, offers an HFC alternative that has an ultra-low-GWP of less than one, is energy-efficient and is designed to maintain or enhance performance levels. Honeywell Solstice HFO technology is meeting our customers’ current and future regulatory needs and supporting their sustainability and energy efficiency goals.
In terms of installation practices, a variety of influences are driving change from upcoming refrigerant shifts to trying to achieve efficiencies in estimates to be awarded more jobs, contractors are seeking new solutions. One option is to look at alternative pipe connection solutions that are more efficient and flameless, reducing costs and permits required. Since Rapid Locking System introduced the first HVAC/R press fittings in 2015, more than 15 million fittings have been installed worldwide. We expect the demand for press fittings to double in the next five years, driven by the shift to more flammable refrigerants and increasing adoption by contractors globally.
We expect the HVACR market will continue to emerge from supply chain and labor-related issues elevated by the pandemic. We will need to continue to monitor the rather volatile global economic situation as this could have short-term impacts that slow the recovery. We will see the decreasing availability of HFC refrigerants and the increasing availability of hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) and HFO blends. The industry will need to prioritize investments in R&D that allow businesses to support current needs and future growth.
With the continued phasedown of HFC refrigerants and the need for businesses to demonstrate environmentally responsible operations on all levels, we expect to see an increase in the availability of equipment that supports the use of A2L refrigerants—which at present are the ideal solution for integrating zero ozone depletion potential and low to ultra-low global warming potential. A2Ls are high-performing, safe, and cost-effective. We see this already with Chemours Opteon™ XL41 (R-454B), which has been selected by several leading global OEMs, including Carrier, Johnson Controls, and Rheem, who announced alignment with us for the utilization of this new-generation A2L in air conditioning and heat pump applications. With these market changes there’s a major risk of illegal or counterfeit products. When Europe implemented the phasedown of HFC several years ago, illegal and counterfeit products became one of their largest issues. These products diminish the objectives of the phasedown and frequently are not safe.