What Are The Biggest Trends In The HVAC Industry In 2023?

With all new central systems requiring the U.S. to meet new energy standards coming in 2023, inverter heat pumps with high SEER ratings are in demand. Heat pumps, by nature, are more expensive than air conditioners. Beyond increased comfort and energy savings, many consumers need financial incentives to make the change. The U.S. Government’s push for advanced, green-source systems is encouraging consumers to change to highly efficient heat pumps, especially given attractive utility rebates and tax credits, many of which Midea products are eligible for. There’s still an education gap as many consumers and even some HVAC contractors don’t understand heat pump technology and its benefits, as well as the incentives for homeowners to switch. More homeowners will be willing to switch once they understand the opportunities that lie within.

1. Electrification and Decarbonization. New regulations have helped to drive industry-wide changes, moving more markets and manufacturers towards electrification. At Rheem, we are working hard to ensure we provide solutions [addressing] how these new electric systems will affect electrical loads, especially for consumers. While heat pumps continue to grow in popularity, dual-fuel applications are also a great alternative for consumers who want an all-electric solution but whose home’s electric system may not be able to handle a fully electric heat pump system.

2. Heat Pump Market Growth. Rheem is seeing a rapid increase in the popularity of heat pumps, even in markets such as South Florida which have not historically been heat pump markets. As the industry moves closer to driving down fossil fuels, heat pumps will continue to become more common. Rheem is already at the forefront of this industry trend and meeting the demand for heat pumps and providing an array of solutions that increase comfort for consumers.

3. Connectivity. As the need for efficient installation and maintenance of HVAC systems increases, contractors are seeking ways to save time on projects and services, while maximizing profitability. Bluetooth connectivity is quickly becoming a popular solution as apps help ensure homeowner’s equipment is installed properly and rapidly.

4. Refrigerant Regulations. As the industry prepares for A2L regulations to take full effect, the market will see an influx of environmentally friendly refrigerants and products such as heat pumps.

It is likely no surprise that 2023 will see a continued rise in the use of technology to improve energy efficiency and performance. Honeywell is constantly innovating to anticipate the needs of our customers in the HVAC sector. One application that is gaining popularity is the heat pump because it provides a more cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative to traditional heating and cooling systems without reliance on natural gas. And, for every kilowatt of power, you put into a heat pump, you're able to generate three to five times the amount of heat, making them more energy efficient. With an urgent need to address the global energy crisis using the technology available to us now, initiatives such as the REPowerEU Plan are aiming to reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian oil and gas by two-thirds by 2027 and fully by 2030. Among other things, part of this plan calls for the doubling of heat pump installations every year, to complete an initial 10 million deployments by 2027, alongside a ban on gas boilers in newly built homes. An important aspect of a heat pump’s energy efficiency is the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) refrigerants that are integral to many of them. Compared to alternative refrigerants such as high-pressure carbon dioxide and highly flammable ammonia, HFOs are significantly more energy efficient, offer lower total cost of ownership, and are safer, positioning them for more rapid, mass adoption in residential homes and commercial buildings. For example, as part of its pledge to deliver 95% carbon-free heat to 7,000 buildings on the island of Zealand, the Ringsted District Heating Utility (DHU) in Denmark turned to Danfoss Climate Solutions and UniCool to develop a new heat plant equipped with Danfoss Turbocor compressor technology and Honeywell Solstice ze refrigerant. The results of the project showed capacity and efficiency were up 30% and 20% respectively, and Ringsted DHU surpassed its goal by achieving 97% carbon-free heat. Honeywell’s Solstice portfolio of low-global-warming-potential (GWP) HFO refrigerants is ready-now to support the widespread transition to more reliable and energy-efficient HVAC technologies.

Through 2023 we will see an increased focus by the industry to prepare for the next U.S. EPA phasedown of HFC refrigerants, which will be a 30% reduction in consumption and production starting Jan. 1, 2024. Key to these preparations will be ongoing system evaluations, education, training, and product selection. We anticipate many system evaluations will continue to spur a retrofit strategy that accommodates the use of zero ozone depletion potential, and low global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) such as R-513A and R-449A. However, there will also be the introduction of A2L refrigerants and the use of new equipment charged with them. OEMs are selecting these refrigerants—such as R-1234yf, R-454C, R-454A, and R-454B—for new equipment because they represent new-generation options offering very low GWP combined with favorable performance and operating efficiencies. Ultimately, as more and more equipment ages out of use or presents a situation where continued repair doesn’t make economic sense compared to total replacement, we will see the balance tip toward a higher presence of HVACR equipment charged with A2Ls.

Because of the growing awareness of the environmental impact of fossil fuels, electrification and decarbonization will remain key trends in the HVAC industry in 2023. This trend is being driven by an increased commitment to sustainability among consumers and businesses, the need to reduce energy consumption and carbon footprint, and federal, state, and local government policies that support energy-efficient buildings and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) technology is well positioned to address this, and heat pump adoption is increasing in colder climates. Furthermore, as the industry transitions to a refrigerant with a lower GWP impact, code changes will be required to allow for the proper use of an A2L refrigerant in residential and commercial markets. This has already been accomplished in other countries around the world that have switched refrigerants, so it's just a matter of ensuring that we enable more efficient technology with proper regulation.

July 2023 was the hottest month on record, pushing energy grids to the max. With extreme weather expected to continue, a common trend for the HVAC industry in 2023 will be managing a long customer service log by increasing first-time fixes to reduce callbacks. That's where rugged mobile devices come into play. HVAC technicians work in challenging conditions, so they need devices that can withstand extreme temperatures and the wear and tear of hands-on work. Rugged mobile devices are built with these environments in mind. They also have long battery life, low failure rates, and reliable connectivity. They keep technicians connected to other teams and customers so they can get quick answers for optimal service. These devices also support monitoring, remote diagnostic, parts ordering, and energy management applications. By doing all these tasks in real-time from one location, technicians experience less downtime and frustration and increased productivity.